publications

ARTICLES

“Networks of Violence: Predicting Conflict in Nigeria” with Max Gallop and Shahryar Minhas. (Accepted for Publication). Journal of Politics.

"Violent and Nonviolent Resistance in Contexts of Prolonged Crisis: The Civilian Perspective."  Forthcoming at the Journal of Global Security Studies.

"Fear of Nonviolent Organizing in Mexico's Criminal Conflict." with Jessica Maves Braithwaite. Journal of Global Security Studies. 3.3 (2018): 271-284.

"Violence, Kinship Networks, and Political Resilience: Evidence from Mexico." Journal of Peace Research. 54.4 (2017): 558-573.

"When do States Say Uncle? Network Dependence and Sanction Compliance" with Shahryar Minhas. International Interactions.  43.4 (2017): 563-588.

"Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models" with Andreas Beger and Michael D. Ward.  International Journal of Forecasting.  32.1 (2016): 98-111.

"Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change" with Andreas Beger and Michael D. Ward.  Research & Politics.  1.3 (2014): 2053168014557511.

"Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model" with Michael Ward.  Political Science Research and Methods.  1.2 (2013): 159-178.

"Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior" with Nils Metternich, Max Gallop, Simon Weschle, & Michael D. Ward.  (2013). American Journal of Political Science. 57 (4) (2013) 892-911.

Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction,”  with Michael D. Ward,  Nils W. Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Florian M. Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle.  International Studies Review (2013) 15, 473–490.

BOOK CHAPTERS

"Latent Networks and Spatial Networks in Politics" with Shahryar Minhas and Michael Ward. The Oxford Handbook of Political Networks (2017).

REPORTS (select)

"Implications of the 2016 Elections for Internet/Digital Security, and Privacy" Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (here) and available to download (here).

"The Mexican Criminal Conflict: The Government's Response to an Evolving Crisis." Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (pdf).

"Civilian Opinion and Nonviolent Resistance: Survey Evidence from Mexico." Published (2015) online for the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (pdf).

Under Review & Unpublished Work

My current working projects are focused on civilian agency and victimization during political and criminal conflicts; violence against civilians and journalists in Mexico; and political methodology with an emphasis on network science and forecasting. Please email me for working drafts.