My investigations center around three main themes. First, I am interested in the causes and consequences of organized political and criminal violence.  Currently, this interest has motivated me to research trajectories of civilian agency, organized resistance, and resilience both during and after armed conflicts.  Second, I'm continually curious about interdependence and how interdependence influences various types of political phenomena, including but not limited to, political participation and the evolution of civil wars, revolutions, and social movements.  These inquires inform a third focus, which is to better understand how social and data science tools can enhance the prediction of conflict and violence across different political contexts. To see how these themes manifest in my research articles see below,  click here for my CV, or check out my google scholar page. You can also see a list of my blog posts at Political Violence at a Glance, here


publications

ARTICLES

9. ``Fear of Nonviolent Organizing in Mexico's Criminal Conflict." with Jessica Maves Braithwaite.  Forthcoming at the Journal of Global Security Studies.

8. ``Violent and Nonviolent Resistance in Contexts of Prolonged Crisis: The Civilian Perspective."  Conditional Acceptance at the Journal of Global Security Studies.

7. "Violence, Kinship Networks, and Political Resilience: Evidence from Mexico." Journal of Peace Research (2017): 0022343317691329.

6. "When do States Say Uncle? Network Dependence and Sanction Compliance" with Shahryar Minhas. International Interactions. (2016): 1-26. 

5. "Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models" with Andreas Berger and Michael D. Ward. International Journal of Forecasting. (2016).

4. “Ensemble Forecasting of Irregular Leadership Changes" with Andreas Berger and Michael D. Ward. Research and Politics. 1.3. (2014).

3. "Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model." With Michael D. Ward. Political Science Research Methods. 1.2 (December, 2013): 159-178.

2. "Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior." with Nils W. Metternich, Max Gallop, Simon Weschle, and Michael D. Ward. American Journal of Political Science. 57.4 (October, 2013): 777-1028.

1. “Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction,” with Michael D. Ward, Nils W. Metternich, Max Gallop, Florian M. Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle.  International Studies Review (2013) 15, 473–490.

BOOK CHAPTERS

"Latent Networks and Spatial Networks in Politics" with Shahryar Minhas and Michael Ward. The Oxford Handbook of Political Networks (2017).

“Les réseaux, les dyades et le modéle des relations sociales.''  Liber amicorum: Hommage en l'honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel.     Ed. Liliane Perrin-Bensahel and Jean-Francois Guilhaudis. Paris: L'Harmattan, March. 271-288. (2013) With Michael D. Ward. 

REPORTS

"Implications of the 2016 Elections for Internet/Digital Security, and Privacy" Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (here) and available to download (here).

"The Mexican Criminal Conflict: The Government's Response to an Evolving Crisis." Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (pdf).

"Civilian Opinion and Nonviolent Resistance: Survey Evidence from Mexico." Published (2015) online for the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (pdf).