My research centers around three main themes.
First, I study how political conflict, social crises, and war shape human behavior. Currently, this interest has led me to research civilian victimization and political organizing in Mexico; networks of political violence in Nigeria; and civilian victimization during civil war. Second, I'm continually curious about interdependence and how interdependence influences various types of political phenomena, especially political organizing through both violent and nonviolent modes of collective action. These inquiries inform a third focus, which is to better understand how social and data science tools -- with an emphasis on network analysis -- can enhance the prediction of conflict and violence across different political contexts.
To see how these themes manifest in my research articles see below, click here for my CV, or check out my google scholar page. You can also see a list of my blog posts at Political Violence at a Glance, here.
“Networks of Violence: Predicting Conflict in Nigeria” with Max Gallop and Shahryar Minhas. (Accepted for Publication). Journal of Politics.
"Violent and Nonviolent Resistance in Contexts of Prolonged Crisis: The Civilian Perspective." Forthcoming at the Journal of Global Security Studies.
"Fear of Nonviolent Organizing in Mexico's Criminal Conflict." with Jessica Maves Braithwaite. Journal of Global Security Studies. 3.3 (2018): 271-284.
"Violence, Kinship Networks, and Political Resilience: Evidence from Mexico." Journal of Peace Research. 54.4 (2017): 558-573.
"When do States Say Uncle? Network Dependence and Sanction Compliance" with Shahryar Minhas. International Interactions. 43.4 (2017): 563-588.
"Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models" with Andreas Beger and Michael D. Ward. International Journal of Forecasting. 32.1 (2016): 98-111.
"Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change" with Andreas Beger and Michael D. Ward. Research & Politics. 1.3 (2014): 2053168014557511.
"Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model" with Michael Ward. Political Science Research and Methods. 1.2 (2013): 159-178.
"Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior" with Nils Metternich, Max Gallop, Simon Weschle, & Michael D. Ward. (2013). American Journal of Political Science. 57 (4) (2013) 892-911.
“Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction,” with Michael D. Ward, Nils W. Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Florian M. Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle. International Studies Review (2013) 15, 473–490.
"Latent Networks and Spatial Networks in Politics" with Shahryar Minhas and Michael Ward. The Oxford Handbook of Political Networks (2017).
"The Mexican Criminal Conflict: The Government's Response to an Evolving Crisis." Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (pdf).
"Civilian Opinion and Nonviolent Resistance: Survey Evidence from Mexico." Published (2015) online for the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (pdf).
Under Review & Unpublished Work
My current working projects are focused on civilian agency during political and criminal conflicts; violence against civilians and journalists in Mexico; victimization in civil wars; and network analyses of civil conflicts. Please email me for working drafts.