I am interested in understanding the causes, consequences, and evolution of conflict and instability across the globe. I investigate these issues by employing a diverse range of methodological approaches. My current research uses surveys and network analysis to understand criminal and political conflicts, with an emphasis on exploring civilian survival and explaining why civilians choose different modes of organizing, such as violent or nonviolent methods, to improve their security situation. Cases of interest include Mexico, Serbia, Syria, Nepal and Nigeria. Primary areas of research include war-time victimization, crisis-reporting, political resilience, data visualization, and network science. Click here for my CV or check out my google scholar page. You can also see a list of my blog posts at Political Violence at a Glance, here.
7. "Violence, Kinship Networks, and Political Resilience: Evidence from Mexico." (Forthcoming, Journal of Peace Research)
6. "When do States Say Uncle? Network Dependence and Sanction Compliance" with Shahryar Minhas. International Interactions. (2016): 1-26.
5. "Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models" with Andreas Berger and Michael D. Ward. International Journal of Forecasting. (2016).
4. “Ensemble Forecasting of Irregular Leadership Changes" with Andreas Berger and Michael D. Ward. Research and Politics. 1.3. (2014).
3. "Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model." With Michael D. Ward. Political Science Research Methods. 1.2 (December, 2013): 159-178.
2. "Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior." with Nils W. Metternich, Max Gallop, Simon Weschle, and Michael D. Ward. American Journal of Political Science. 57.4 (October, 2013): 777-1028.
1. “Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conﬂict Prediction,” with Michael D. Ward, Nils W. Metternich, Max Gallop, Florian M. Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle. International Studies Review (2013) 15, 473–490.
"Latent Networks and Spatial Networks in Politics" with Shahryar Minhas and Michael Ward. Forthcoming in The Oxford Handbook of Political Networks.
“Les réseaux, les dyades et le modéle des relations sociales.'' Liber amicorum: Hommage en l'honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel. Ed. Liliane Perrin-Bensahel and Jean-Francois Guilhaudis. Paris: L'Harmattan, March. 271-288. (2013) With Michael D. Ward.
"The Mexican Criminal Conflict: The Government's Response to an Evolving Crisis." Published (2016) online for the Sie Center at the University of Denver (pdf).
"Civilian Opinion and Nonviolent Resistance: Survey Evidence from Mexico." Published (2015) online for the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (pdf).